In just under a week, a decision will be made on whether to move Suffolk and Essex out of Tier 2 coronavirus restrictions.
But what do the latest figures tell us about our next tier?
Recent national newspaper reports have speculated on Suffolk going into Tier 3, and also into Tier 1.
Ultimately, the final decision lies with the government and local public health teams can only present their case – they cannot choose the tier themselves.
What we do know is that decisions to move tiers will be based on a number of factors – including current infection rates, numbers of over-60s affected, and pressures on the NHS.
Infection rates
Rates of coronavirus infection are continuing to rise across many areas of Suffolk.
This is despite overall cases falling over the course of the national lockdown, from 72 per 100,000 to 65.4.
Ipswich currently has the highest rate and the latest numbers reveal it is continuing to record above the average for England, with 160 infections per 100,000 people.
The only area to record a fall in the past week was Babergh, with 80 per 100,000 - down from 85.
Despite their rates being among the lowest in England - with Mid Suffolk right at the bottom of the table - all other districts of Suffolk recorded a rise.
The England average for the week to December 5 was around 150 infections per 100,000 people.
Those rates will need to come down if Suffolk hopes to enter Tier 1 next week, with the government previously suggesting only areas with a sustained drop in cases will be in the least restrictive tier.
With overall infections staying well below the England average, it is unlikely Suffolk will be put into Tier 3 but the possibility cannot be ruled out.
North Essex rates are rising again but are not reaching levels seen before the second national lockdown.
Rates for Colchester and Tendring have stayed between 70 and 90 infections per 100,000 – compared with over 100 before the lockdown in early November.
Areas of southern Essex, such as Basildon, are experiencing a rapid rise in cases – but the county council has said its aim is for the whole of Essex to stay in tier 2, without neighbourhoods being carved up.
Did lockdown work?
High rates don’t necessarily mean the second lockdown didn’t work.
People living in areas with lighter restrictions were able to mix freely before the lockdown, while areas in the North West of England that had been under much stricter restrictions since mid-October were already seeing rates fall in early November.
Surges in late November and early December could be explained by pre-lockdown infections working their way through the system.
Over-60s
Another key factor in deciding Suffolk’s and Essex’s next tier will be infections in over-60s.
The latest numbers for Suffolk do suggest that a higher proportion of older people are contracting the virus than those aged up to 59.
Infection rates in over-60s stood at 81.1 per 100,000 for Suffolk overall in the week to December 4, compared with 74.7 in those younger than 60.
In Essex, the picture is slightly more complex due to large differences in infection rates in the north and south.
In Colchester, rates were 76.1 per 100,000 for over 60s and 97.6 for under 60s.
In Tendring, rates of infection stood at 40.7 per 100,000 for those aged 60 and over compared with 88.6 in those aged 59 and under.
Pressure on the NHS
The ability of our local NHS to cope with rising infections plays a pivotal role in deciding our next tier.
Latest figures indicate that the number of people in our hospitals with Covid-19 in early December was higher than at any point in the pandemic.
Official data on beds occupied by Covid patients at the East Suffolk and North Essex Foundation Trust (ESNEFT) is not broken down by hospital site.
But the latest numbers reveal 153 Covid patients were in beds across both Ipswich and Colchester hospitals on December 3.
That is the highest figure recorded by the trust during the whole Covid-19 crisis and the impact of this is likely to have some bearing on next week's tier decision.
Chief executive Nick Hulme said on Thursday that Ipswich Hospital was treating 110 patients with another 35 receiving treatment at Colchester, adding that cases were starting to fall.
Earlier in the second wave, around the end of October, Colchester Hospital was being hit far harder than Ipswich.
Figures for West Suffolk Hospital, a far smaller trust, were lower - with 14 beds occupied on December 3.
Eight patients were on ventilators across the three hospitals on that date.
At ESNEFT there have been 64 Covid-19 deaths in the past month, with numbers fluctuating week-on-week but staying below levels seen in the first peak. We have asked the trust for a breakdown of deaths by hospital.
At West Suffolk, there were 16 in the past month, with Covid deaths slowly starting to fall in recent weeks.
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